![]() In the business-as-usual case, it foresees existing policies being enough to limit global population growth to below 9 billion in 2046 and then decline to 7.3 billion in 2100. It sketches out two scenarios depending on the extent to which such policies are pursued. The report is based on a new methodology which incorporates social and economic factors that have a proven impact on birthrate, such as raising education levels, particularly for women, and improving income. They were commissioned by the Club of Rome for a followup to its seminal Limits to Growth study more than 50 years ago. The new projection, released on Monday, was carried out by the Earth4All collective of leading environmental science and economic institutions, including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Stockholm Resilience Centre and the BI Norwegian Business School. Last year, the UN estimated the world population would hit 9.7 billion by the middle of the century and continue to rise for several decades afterwards. Previous studies have painted a grimmer picture. We need a lot of effort to address the current development paradigm of overconsumption and overproduction, which are bigger problems than population.” “This gives us evidence to believe the population bomb won’t go off, but we still face significant challenges from an environmental perspective. One of the authors of the report, Ben Callegari, said the findings were cause for optimism – but there was a catch. Once the demographic bulge is overcome, pressure on nature and the climate should start to ease, along with associated social and political tensions.īut the authors caution that falling birthrates alone will not solve the planet’s environmental problems, which are already serious at the 8 billion level and are primarily caused by the excess consumption of a wealthy minority.ĭeclining populations can also create new problems, such as a shrinking workforce and greater stress on healthcare associated with an ageing society, as countries like Japan and South Korea are finding. These samples are then examined using statistical models to draw conclusions about the whole population.The new forecasts are good news for the global environment. Demographers also gather data indirectly through surveying smaller groups within a population. However, these sources can be inaccurate depending on the precision of government records. Demographers gather data mainly through government censuses and government registries of births and deaths. ![]() It is these three variables (mortality, fertility, and migration) that contribute to population change. ![]() Migration of people is the last main factor in demographic studies. These studies led to the idea of “ differential fertility.” Differential fertility suggests that different groups within a population have different numbers of children due to factors, such as religion, cultural attitudes, poverty, and employment. However, in the 19th century, studies showed that there was a decline in the number of births, and researchers began to study fertility as well as mortality. These early demographic studies were mostly concerned with mortality. Demographic studies were often carried out by early insurance agents to determine life insurance rates. His study represents one of the earliest statistical examinations of the population of a region. Through studying baptism and burial records, Graunt could estimate the number of men of military age, and the number of women of childbearing age. The earliest statistical studies were concerned mostly with mortality (how many people died and at what age). ![]() While basic demographic studies, such as censuses, were conducted in the ancient world as far back as 6,000 years ago, demographers as we know them, such as John Graunt from the United Kingdom, came about in the 16th century. Demography is useful for governments and private businesses as a means of analyzing and predicting social, cultural, and economic trends related to population. It uses methods from history, economics, anthropology, sociology, and other fields. Demography examines the size, structure, and movements of populations over space and time. Demography is the statistical study of human populations. ![]()
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